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华泰证券港股策略：金融和AH溢价仍有改善空间_我的网站

一 |     Islamabad, Oct 21 (UNI) The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) on Friday removed Pakistan from a list of countries under “increased monitoring”, also known as the “grey list”.

Addressing the press conference at the conclusion of the its plenary, President Raja Kumar noted that Pakistan had been on the grey list since 2018.

“It has two concurrent action plans. After a lot of work by Pakistan authorities, they have largely addressed all of the action plan items,” he said.

He stated that the task force had conducted an onsite visit at the end of August. The onsite team verified that there is a high-level of commitment from the Pakistani leadership, sustainability of reforms and commitment to make improvements in the future, he said.

“As a result of these action plans, Pakistan has made significant improvements to strengthen the effectiveness of this framework for combatting terrorism financing.”

Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari was quick to congratulate the country on the development moments before the FATF press conference began, according to Dawn reports.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Pakistan’s exiting the FATF grey list is a “vindication of our determined and sustained efforts over the years”, according to reports.

He congratulated the civil and military leadership as well as all institutions whose hard work led to today’s success. “Aap sab ko bohat bohat Mubarak,” the premier said, following up with a text smiley.

In a follow-up tweet, PM Shehbaz particularly commended the role and efforts of Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto, Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and their teams and all political parties for putting up a united front to get Pakistan out of the grey list.

Pakistan was included among jurisdictions under increased monitoring list in June 2018 for deficiencies in its legal, financial, regulatory, investigations, prosecution, judicial and non-government sector to fight money laundering and combat terror financing considered serious threat to global financial system.

Islamabad made high-level political commitments to address these deficiencies under a 27-point action plan. But later the number of action points was enhanced to 34.

The country had since been vigorously working with FATF and its affiliates to strengthen its legal and financial systems against money laundering and terror financing to meet international standards in line with 40-recommendations of the FATF.

A 15-member joint delegation of the FATF and its Sydney-based regional affiliate — Asia Pacific Group — paid an onsite visit to Pakistan from Aug 29 to Sept 2 to verify the country’s compliance with the 34-point action plan committed with the FATF.

The authorities that had kept the countrywide visit of the delegation low profile later termed it “a smooth and successful visit”.

The delegation had detailed discussions with relevant agencies pursuant to the authorisation of onsite Visit by FATF Plenary in June 2022.

According to the Foreign Office, the focus of the visit was to validate on ground Pakistan’s high-level commitment and sustainability of reforms in AML/CFT regime and [it] looked forward to logical conclusion to the evaluation process.

Pakistan believed that as a result of strenuous and consistent efforts over the past four years, it has not only achieved a high degree of technical compliance with FATF standards but also ensured high level of effectiveness through implementation of two comprehensive FATF action plans.

In June this year, FATF had found Pakistan “compliant or largely compliant” on all the 34 points and had decided to field an onsite mission to verify it on ground before formally announcing the country’s exit from the grey list that finally took place in August and September.

In terms of technical compliance with FATF standards, Pakistan has been rated by APG as “compliant or largely compliant” in 38 out of 40 FATF recommendations in August this year, which placed the country among the top compliant countries in the world.

UNI GNK。    华泰证券研报称，市场对港股中期走势受基本面影响的程度分歧不大，关键变量在全球流动性环境。华泰证券认为，美元因公信力挑战转弱、人民币升值强化，有助于港股AH溢价再度收窄及香港金融资产重估。

二 | 但对总体市场而言，本轮弱美元所处背景并非去年全球金融条件宽松和risk-on环境，流动性环境偏紧方向并未改变。海外10年美债利率大概率高位震荡，日元再度外汇干预或加息都有可能发生，8月央行年会是关注重点。香港在海外提短端控长端思路及港元汇率偏弱的情况下，HIBOR有可能进一步上行。

三 | 因流动性难有增量支持，财报季尚未被充分定价，盈利兑现度更为重要。配置上维持均衡：低波红利（如银行）为底仓；关注中报或确认经营底部的乳品、部分零售；AI链（如晶圆代工）定位进攻品种、小仓位参与超跌反弹；CXO和创新药龙头兑现度高但短期性价比下降，行情斜率或放缓。

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